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Auto loan delinquency rates expected to return to normal Advertiser Disclosure Advertiser Disclosure We are an independent, advertising-supported comparison service. Our goal is to help you make better financial decisions by providing you with interactive tools and financial calculators, publishing original and objective content. We also allow you to conduct research and compare information for free to help you make financial decisions with confidence. Bankrate has agreements with issuers such as, but not limited to American Express, Bank of America, Capital One, Chase, Citi and Discover. How We Make Money The deals that are advertised on this site are from companies that compensate us. This compensation could affect how and where products appear on the site, such as, for example, the sequence in which they appear in the listing categories and other categories, unless prohibited by law for our mortgage home equity, mortgage and other products for home loans. However, this compensation will not influence the information we provide, or the reviews you see on this site. We do not contain the universe of companies or financial deals that could be available to you. SHARE: Massimo colombo/Getty Images
3 min read . Published March 02, 2023
Authored by Rebecca Betterton Written by Auto Loans Reporter Rebecca Betterton is the auto loans reporter for Bankrate. She specializes in assisting readers with the ins and outs of securely taking out loans to buy an automobile. Edited by Rhys Subitch Edited by Auto loans editor Rhys has been editing and writing for Bankrate from late 2021. They are committed to helping readers gain the confidence to control their finances through providing clear, well-researched information that breaks down otherwise complex subjects into digestible pieces. The Bankrate guarantee
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This compensation could impact how, where and in what order items are displayed within the categories of listing and categories, unless it is prohibited by law. We also offer mortgage, home equity, and other products for home loans. Other elements, like our own proprietary website rules and whether the product is available within the area you reside in or is within your personal credit score can also impact the way and place products are listed on this website. We strive to provide an array of offers, Bankrate does not include information about each credit or financial item or product. While the prices of cars have been rising, automobile loan delinquency rates have been extremely low in the initial two years of the pandemic. This isn't any longer the case. As the works to address the rising cost of living, more people are becoming indebted on their auto loans -- and we can expect the delinquency rate to return to pre-pandemic levels when we reach the end of 2022. 2022 delinquency rates continue to increase. The robust credit conditions during the pandemic are returning to normal levels, exemplified by the auto loan results this month. According to Cox Automotive's weekly insight from early October, loans that are more than 60 days delinquent have increased by 30.8 percent from the previous year. But normal does not necessarily mean it's good. These numbers reveal that delinquency rates are rising upwards each monthparticularly for drivers with subprime credit. The subprime borrowers are the ones most directly affected by inflation and are more vulnerable to lenders. It is crucial to be current with your loan payment in order to be safe from the possibility of defaulting in the loan and losing your car. The positive side is that these higher levels of late payments haven't yet led to an increased number of drivers who default on their loans at pre-pandemic levels. However, the availability of vehicles and credit access are likely to alter the landscape when 2022 draws to an end. Focus on the big picture While it is certain that delinquency rates are increasing but it is crucial to consider the factors that are driving this increase. This is primarily due to an issue of supply and demand which remains the main influence of price increase in the automobile sector. With fewer inventory and more expectations, the more costly cars result in higher prices, 6.07 and 10.26 percent in the case of used and new cars respectively, according to . However, Satyan Merchant who is the Senior vice-president and business director at TransUnion, warns to look at the big picture in relation to auto-related delinquencies in the wake of the "Critical Eye on Auto Performance, released in mid-October. Merchant points out that "while the rates of point-in-time delinquency are higher when contrasted with prior time frames, we have also observed relatively stable performance in the past." Therefore, this increase in delinquency is normal when considered on an economic scale. The report also revealed that the general performance was similar to rates in 2019, which is an encouraging indication. The shrinking "denominator" Another influential reason for the rising rates of delinquency is something TransUnion refers to as "the shrinking denominator," This is due to the number of vehicles which are being funded -- much lower than previously. This is due to lower originations in 2020 that continued to decline due to limited vehicle supply and then an increase in vehicle repossession between 2021 and 2022. The two factors are combining to result in an "imbalance between the volumes of originations and total account runoff results in lower total outstanding account volume," found TransUnion. What kept the auto loan delinquency rates constant? Data from February 2022 shows that government assistance helped play an essential factor in keeping rates of delinquency stable over the past two years. Because a lot of Americans receiving assistance from the government during this time also fall into the subprime classification, it meant that there was a decrease in loan originations as well as delinquency rates. The absence of loan originations Across all categories, the majority of auto delinquencies come from those with poor credit scores. Therefore, with fewer lower-credit borrowers receiving new loans and delinquency rates remaining relatively low. A lot of low-credit borrowers were unable to get new loans due to less demand for vehicles with stay-at-home-orders and more strict acceptance criteria that lenders are implementing. The results of the recent Fed meeting confirm this belief. A large portion of the time between 2020 and the beginning of 2021 consisted of a smaller number of loan originations. The "missing originations" -- as the Fed stated them meant fewer delinquency rates. If those who tend to be subject to repossession or defaulting on their loans do not have loans, fewer delinquencies will occur. This combined with federal assistance and lenders extending leniency on repayments, led to fewer delinquent loans and originations. A smaller number of subprime are those who have a credit score between 501 and 600 as per Experian. For the quarter ending March 2022, total loans and leases made by all subprime borrowers -including deep subprimeis just below 16 percent. Separated out, deep subprime hit a record low rate at 1.85 percent. How can you avoid being in debt with your vehicle loan This is a hot topic right now so can be a viable option to save some money. However, if you opt to take out a loan that has a shorter time generally, it's recommended to take out a larger loan to prevent unmanageable monthly installments. Also, if it becomes difficult to meet your monthly payments, think about the possibility of refinancing your loan. Remember that extending your loan term will also increase your interest rate that you pay over the life that you take out the loan. By purchasing a used vehicle it is possible to own an excellent vehicle for less cost. And, since new cars are prone to depreciation within the first year or two it is more likely that you will avoid being on the loan and having to pay more than what it's worth. In the end, delinquencies have been at a low level through the first two years after the illness. The primary reasons for the lower default rates are lower borrowers, and the increased assistance from government for borrowers who would normally struggle to pay. As assistance ends and more people seeking vehicles -- and , by extension, financing -- there will likely be a steady increase in defaults over the period 2022-2022. But this is more a representation of the end of federal assistance but not necessarily a an alarm signal. Learn more
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Written by Auto Loans Reporter Rebecca Betterton is the auto loans reporter for Bankrate. She is a specialist in helping readers to navigate the ins and outs of securely borrowing money to purchase an automobile. Written by Rhys Subitch Edited by Auto loans editor Rhys has been writing and editing for Bankrate since late 2021. They are enthusiastic about helping readers gain the confidence to take control of their finances by providing well-written, clear information that breaks down otherwise complex topics into manageable bites.
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